| • | How do I determine the date first prediction when generating predictions in batch? |
| • | Why is it important to carefully select the date first prediction? |
| • | How do I select a value for date first prediction, especially since the periodical doesn’t publish on a particular date? |
How do I determine the date first prediction when generating predictions in batch?
The key to generating predictions in batch is the date first prediction. It calculates the date expected for each issue based on the publication cycle defined on the Patterns tab, with the chronology of the issue used as the model. When the date first prediction is completed correctly according to the publication cycle and chronology information, the expected dates for all issues will be consistent.
| • | Publication Cycle – This field is found on the Patterns tab. The primary role of this field is to define the frequency (daily, weekly, monthly, etc.). It also allows you to select a date on which the material is published. For example, you would choose Monday for a weekly publication with a chronology of June 17, 2004, since the date is on a Monday. The date published is a little less clear in the case of a monthly. If the chronology for a monthly publication is June 2004, the date published defaults to the first day of the month. |
| • | Chronology – When generating a batch of predictions, the chronology of the first issue is specified in the Chronology field. The chronology is the date on the publication. |
| • | Date First Prediction – When generating a batch of predictions, you need to type a value in the Date First Prediction field for the first issue. SirsiDynix Symphony uses this start date to calculate the date expected for each predicted issue. |
Determine the date first prediction by asking these two questions:
| 1 | Where does the chronology of the issue fall on the calendar? |
When identifying the date first prediction, consider the chronology of the issue. For example, the chronology might be June 2004 for the first issue of a monthly publication. On the calendar, the chronology falls on the month of June in 2004, which means the date first prediction must be in the month of June in the year 2004. This is half of what you need to know.
| 2 | What was the date chosen in the publication cycle? |
For a monthly pattern, the default date is the first of the month. You already know, based the answer to your first question, that June 2004 will make up part of the date first prediction. If the first day of the month is in the publication cycle, the date first prediction will be 6/1/2004.
Why is it important to carefully select the date first prediction?
The date first prediction helps calculate the date expected for every predicted issue. The date expected is calculated by measuring the number of days between the date first prediction and date expected of the first prediction record. If the Date First Prediction field is not filled in correctly (such as, the date first prediction doesn’t match the chronology and date published), the expected dates may not be calculated correctly.
How do I select a value for date first prediction, especially since the periodical doesn’t publish on a particular date?
The date first prediction is essentially a date for SirsiDynix Symphony to begin creating prediction records. When selecting a date first prediction, keep in mind the following:
| • | Date first prediction is a date that represents the chronology on the issue. It is not chosen based on the date when the issue is printed, published, or received. |
| • | When selecting a date first prediction, remember the publication pattern from the Patterns tab. A day of the month or day of the week is always specified in the Publication Cycle text box, and the date first prediction and the pattern established in the publication cycle must correspond. |
Guidelines for Selecting Date First Prediction
Bimonthly Chronology – If the chronology has a chronology type of bimonth or bimonth2, use one of the months from the chronology and the year from the chronology. Pick a date based on the publication cycle.
Date Chronology – If the chronology has a chronology type of date, use that date as date first prediction.
The following are examples for selecting Date First Predictions.
| • | If the chronology is Feb 23, 2004, date first prediction should be 2/23/2004, and the publication cycle, depending on whether it is a daily, weekly, monthly, etc., must allow that it could have been published on the 22nd. |
| • | A monthly publication with Feb 23, 2004 on it should have a publication cycle indicating that it publishes every 1 month on the 22nd. |
| • | A weekly should indicated that it publishes every 1 week on Thursday (the 22nd is a Thursday), and so on. |
Month Chronology – If the chronology has a chronology type of month, use the month and year of the chronology in date first prediction. Pick a date that corresponds with the publication cycle.
No Chronology – If there is no chronology, and you are using the chronology type of numeration, still keep the publication cycle in mind, and pick a date first prediction that corresponds with the publication cycle.
Season Chronology – If the chronology has one of the season chronology types, you can choose any appropriate month, based on chronology, for use in the date first prediction. Year is also based on the chronology. The date you choose must correspond with the publication cycle.
The following are examples of Season Chronology.
SEASON or SEASON3
WIN – Jan, Feb, Mar
SPR – Apr, May, Jun
SUM – Jul, Aug, Sep
FALL – Oct, Nov, Dec
SEASON2
SPR – Jan, Feb, MarS
UM – Apr, May, Jun
FALL – Jul, Aug, Sep
WIN – Oct, Nov, Dec
Year Chronology – If the chronology has a chronology type of year, use the year of the chronology in date first prediction. Pick a month and day that correspond with the publication cycle.
Miscellaneous
Predicted Issue Naming – When the chronology type is date, the predicted issue’s name is calculated by applying the publication cycle definition to the previous issue’s name, calculating the next issue’s name resolved to “month day, year.”
When the chronology type is month, the predicted issue’s name is calculated by applying the publication cycle definition to the previous issue’s name, calculating the next issue’s name resolved to “month year.”
When the chronology type is year, the predicted issue’s name is calculated by applying the publication cycle definition to the previous issue’s date first prediction (not the name as in chronology type date or month), calculating the next issue’s name resolved to “year.”
Calculation of Date Expected – When a prediction is generated, the date expected is simply calculated by adding a fixed number of days to the date published. That number of days is the difference between the original date expected and the date first prediction.
What are the consequences of an ill-chosen date first prediction?
An ill-chosen date first prediction will cause the chronology and/or date expected to “drift,” requiring you to modify the predictions. Annuals with a chronology in one year and an expected date in another year provide the most dramatic examples.
© 2006, 2014 SirsiDynix